Tennis · resolved market
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6153e3961bb579574feb2c07684f6152ba328b4fa67a45c98c1f29af540daca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Under 2.5 | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over 2.5 | 36c | 435$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 415.97$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.04 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Over 2.5 | 35c | 408.66$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.63 | 354 | 36.4%129 W · 225 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…0664backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under 2.5 | 60c | 372.41$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.57 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 2.5 | 33c | 301.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.5 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…2eaabacked Over 2.5 | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 232.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over 2.5 | 36c | 231.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Under 2.5 | 13c | 200.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Over 2.5 | 56c | 153.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over 2.5 | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…3054backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 100.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…27bebacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over 2.5 | 27c | 94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -25%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…51b9backed Over 2.5 | 35c | 66.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe9…11c6backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 44.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over 2.5 | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over 2.5 | 64c | 39.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…fbd0backed Under 2.5 | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco GauffAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs GauffSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)Gauff won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.