Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Gauff
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebf55f512c93a0357dfb7e994c83de1e1e8f9a6419ce6949fca8db0d9b19b2fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Gauff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Gauff | 31c | 999.98$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 516.65$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Sabalenka | 68c | 436.99$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Gauff | 29c | 318.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Gauff | 33c | 263.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…fea3backed Sabalenka | 72c | 262.63$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Sabalenka | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Gauff | 22c | 227.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Sabalenka | 76c | 195$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Gauff | 24c | 174.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 328 | 43.9%144 W · 184 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Gauff | 11c | 168$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Gauff | 18c | 125.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…e14cbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…3c94backed Gauff | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…fbd0backed Sabalenka | 69c | 46.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…566dbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 46.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Sabalenka | 79c | 45.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Sabalenka | 79c | 17.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Gauffthis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco GauffAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)Gauff won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.