MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa641277cc07dd1df0a05a1c37f137c23a31ec09e644c0c5ecdf8374eeac53eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 2,813$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,969.38 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 510$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 237$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 213.62$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Detroit Tigers | 70c | 185.69$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 124.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 90.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 80.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85c…88e8backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 63.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 63.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…ab7cbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 37.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…2dc5backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 37.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc68e…d5d9backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 36.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Detroit Tigers | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…6544backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 33.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…4861backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 32.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…cff4backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 32.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.53per pick | 69cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x291e…2421backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 31.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…b587backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 30.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…b79fbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 30.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440f…b5f5backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 30.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…c3b5backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 29.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1a…7451backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 28.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec81…c2f4backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 28.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…aee0backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 28.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1a36backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 28.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7a2bbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 28.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…e8c1backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 27.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…8b1cbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 27.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6783…73f9backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 27.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…5025backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 27.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 27.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…6253backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f9…0bffbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 25.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…7599backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 24.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…ef42backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 24.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…7715backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 24.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 23.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…f2f9backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 21.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…c707backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 19.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…97f7backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 17.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.