MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a3c9f4ef239b0289be52cf4198dc82cfaa911882fcea4cb57959523ca39ac83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 13,021$4,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,305.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6d…08a8backed Under | 60c | 5,937$3,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.81 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 4,343$2,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 4,065$2,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 40c | 3,900$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.29 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 73c | 2,473$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 42c | 1,564$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.88 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 5c | 702.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Over | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under | 58c | 548.02$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.17 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 518.33$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 479.9$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 43c | 412.28$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.28 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 65c | 357.43$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 346.03$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 281$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 31c | 234.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 30c | 222.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 31c | 219$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 63c | 206.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 55c | 199$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 12c | 166.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 30c | 163.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 45c | 127.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 44c | 111.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 37c | 94.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 36c | 78.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 43c | 60.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 59c | 59.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…c119backed Under | 59c | 54.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 52c | 29.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…9ce1backed Under | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8eebbacked Under | 60c | 26.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 64c | 26.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…3bfbbacked Under | 60c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…6a00backed Under | 60c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…0abcbacked Under | 60c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077b…11d4backed Under | 60c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440b…7551backed Under | 60c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…581fbacked Under | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…5b75backed Under | 58c | 20.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…40adbacked Under | 60c | 19.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.