MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd1e143e56c6ed8b5fce27549bc48cc57e3dc03dea7864aa240167db545694e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 46c | 3,200$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.98 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed No | 54c | 1,583$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.76 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed No | 56c | 1,116$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.51 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 44c | 1,089$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.36 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 55c | 413$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.02 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…6d33backed No | 54c | 398.05$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…5a65backed No | 54c | 368.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.86 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 45c | 292.94$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.82 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00df…701bbacked Yes | 48c | 116.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed No | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed No | 55c | 71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Yes | 19c | 67.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 60.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 77c | 54.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 52.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked No | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked No | 52c | 25.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.