MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe40997f0d00b8dd6e2f3b05dee82210c497243c9b258d6b254635526ba43be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 5,895$4,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.44 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Detroit Tigers | 30c | 3,734$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Detroit Tigers | 30c | 3,456$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 3,281$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Detroit Tigers | 31c | 3,242$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 28c | 1,954$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 1,048$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.84 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Detroit Tigers | 30c | 350.87$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 335$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 315$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 312.95$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 240$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners | 69c | 167$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 141.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 115.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Detroit Tigers | 29c | 110.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Detroit Tigers | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Detroit Tigers | 29c | 73.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1a…6fc0backed Detroit Tigers | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…0cffbacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Seattle Mariners | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.