MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x235d2c3a41113213a4ebe57bbbb639c79097d3e433da387df8497b437e45997d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 3,361$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 1,690$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.21 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 736.91$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.41 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 535.88$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.9 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 505.08$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 467.81$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 420$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 399$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.53 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 329.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.39 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 32c | 315.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.3 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9c28backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 275.39$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 222.42$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 214.28$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 143$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 110.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 106$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 106$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 104.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 75.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 72.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 62.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 58.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 55.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcc…13c3backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 46.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 37.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -9.2wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…c119backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 35.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…02debacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 32.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 24.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.