TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shenzhen Leopards vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shenzhen Leopardsof Shenzhen Leopards, Guangzhou Loong Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,522 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe3d4…884ebacked Guangzhou Loong Lions27c4,479$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.895642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Guangzhou Loong Lions41c2,573$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.0916828.6%48 W · 120 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Guangzhou Loong Lions25c1,587$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37d0…b58abacked Guangzhou Loong Lions21c1,473$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Guangzhou Loong Lions36c1,276$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.726544.5%118 W · 147 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3b…0230backed Shenzhen Leopards44c1,137$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.73887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+51.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Guangzhou Loong Lions32c1,002$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.9243543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Guangzhou Loong Lions6c1,001$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.598611.6%10 W · 76 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x027b…019cbacked Shenzhen Leopards62c963.28$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.075100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19ee…a073backed Guangzhou Loong Lions9c936.05$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0943…c3a4backed Guangzhou Loong Lions27c821.48$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec1…2778backed Shenzhen Leopards73c821.48$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf7…4941backed Shenzhen Leopards79c778$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shenzhen Leopards79c770.14$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.7636939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Shenzhen Leopards73c748.07$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.4654251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Guangzhou Loong Lions2c700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa6f…68c5backed Shenzhen Leopards79c695$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec7…1e38backed Guangzhou Loong Lions8c675$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Shenzhen Leopards70c649.27$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.625152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Guangzhou Loong Lions35c633$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.769746.4%45 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b06…3781backed Guangzhou Loong Lions19c621.54$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions17c576.87$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0535234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Shenzhen Leopards70c572.18$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.1431651.6%163 W · 153 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Shenzhen Leopards74c571.29$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.9437052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Guangzhou Loong Lions31c506.92$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.741233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb743…c116backed Shenzhen Leopards37c499$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.28875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions38c476$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.796940.6%28 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e29…4b24backed Shenzhen Leopards42c471.54$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.281764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+279.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Shenzhen Leopards80c447.42$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8728943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions33c401.4$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.732445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Guangzhou Loong Lions27c398.67$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.182231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Guangzhou Loong Lions37c397$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.977646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Guangzhou Loong Lions38c337$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.533228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-43.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Guangzhou Loong Lions21c336.43$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.652748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Shenzhen Leopards79c300.54$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2221444.4%95 W · 119 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Guangzhou Loong Lions7c299.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Guangzhou Loong Lions22c269.59$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.581154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Guangzhou Loong Lions76c263.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010634.9%37 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions18c250$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4524430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Shenzhen Leopards79c221.48$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Shenzhen Leopards79c199.98$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Shenzhen Leopards79c193.5$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0212268.9%84 W · 38 L+15.5wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Guangzhou Loong Lions21c185.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe3…949cbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions11c185.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Guangzhou Loong Lions22c159.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Guangzhou Loong Lions37c158$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.776450%32 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Guangzhou Loong Lions22c156.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4260%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Guangzhou Loong Lions21c140.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307341.1%30 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+39.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5dc…0f05backed Guangzhou Loong Lions11c138.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions20c132.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.422330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x289c…79bcbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions38c129.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.06825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Shenzhen Leopards79c126.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.142965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeea1…e51abacked Guangzhou Loong Lions24c122.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c3a…5c97backed Guangzhou Loong Lions45c120$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Shenzhen Leopards73c119.35$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.222941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Guangzhou Loong Lions20c113.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.968845.5%40 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Guangzhou Loong Lions21c107.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.325517.6%45 W · 210 L-29.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9dde…5e80backed Shenzhen Leopards80c101$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Shenzhen Leopards80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2013751.1%70 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions21c95.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0322231.5%70 W · 152 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e15…8ea4backed Guangzhou Loong Lions22c92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff2…3b8bbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions42c90.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Shenzhen Leopards80c90.51$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.12548%12 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick58cpaid+49.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8441…7925backed Guangzhou Loong Lions20c81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…899bbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions31c80.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1420936.4%76 W · 133 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions22c79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.582955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Guangzhou Loong Lions20c78.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.032751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Shenzhen Leopards79c77.51$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1219748.2%95 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Guangzhou Loong Lions22c68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Shenzhen Leopards71c61$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.76061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Guangzhou Loong Lions21c59.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Shenzhen Leopards71c59.24$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.293565.7%23 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Guangzhou Loong Lions42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010926.6%29 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Guangzhou Loong Lions37c46.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.09520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Guangzhou Loong Lions32c44.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.421353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Shenzhen Leopards79c44.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3131446.2%145 W · 169 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Guangzhou Loong Lions40c42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.87944.3%35 W · 44 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce4d…ade4backed Guangzhou Loong Lions35c39.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b5…56abbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions54c39.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Shenzhen Leopards39c38.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.31145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Shenzhen Leopards78c34.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.68683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Shenzhen Leopards80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.25560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f4d…398dbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions39c29.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1505…2f1abacked Guangzhou Loong Lions39c28.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Guangzhou Loong Lions39c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921598.2%13 W · 146 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Guangzhou Loong Lions42c27.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67031.4%22 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad06…b132backed Guangzhou Loong Lions46c25.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.59560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f71…9a06backed Shenzhen Leopards79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.326100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Shenzhen Leopards73c21.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.926663.6%42 W · 24 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Shenzhen Leopards78c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.627356.2%41 W · 32 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b69…e65dbacked Shenzhen Leopards72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.75100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Shenzhen Leopards77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.65547.3%26 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a47…3df5backed Guangzhou Loong Lions54c19.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe10f…c59fbacked Shenzhen Leopards78c19.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Shenzhen Leopards80c17.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4310947.7%52 W · 57 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed Shenzhen Leopards79c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.365565.5%36 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfacd…d470backed Shenzhen Leopards79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d5…ea80backed Shenzhen Leopards80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.