MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6843beb883e1d323d4d29b5b041c1d359b9c1e4e6bc489ed3ea390955337243
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 9,231$4,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,567.68 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 64c | 4,577$2,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 2,536$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 19c | 1,829$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 63c | 1,029$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Under | 61c | 987.45$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.29 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 45c | 577.61$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.14 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 37c | 399.78$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.41 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 32c | 309.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.71 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 46c | 302.71$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 227.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 57c | 201.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Over | 38c | 194.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 33c | 133.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 114.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 107$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 67c | 106$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 32c | 101.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 59c | 80.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 35c | 68.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 37c | 64.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 63.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 56c | 52.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 43c | 37.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 64c | 34.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 52c | 31.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 59c | 30.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 42c | 28.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 39c | 26.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 56c | 25.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 68c | 20.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 65c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 65c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 67c | 15.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.