MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7046fe0f1bc3477cf83da13fb2114c17c9565ae5df6a329958db87f0dd472560
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 58c | 3,396$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.67 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 2,063$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,087$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.02 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 1,034$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Under | 63c | 640.67$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 51c | 578.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.7 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 59c | 348.39$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.55 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 37c | 311.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 258.21$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 51c | 221.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 19c | 203$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 73c | 198$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 183.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 21c | 182.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 182.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Under | 41c | 132$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 49c | 116.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 105.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 78c | 97.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…c92dbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 52c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 48c | 56.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 54c | 54.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 51.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 22c | 45.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 43.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 51c | 20.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.