Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Ohio Bobcats (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa691ac756d231950deab6dc5e8ed9be874341dc5afe2e6121d3e8d0e146db0cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ball State Cardinalsof Ohio Bobcats, Ball State Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 562.45$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.38 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Ball State Cardinals | 42c | 469.48$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.3 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 440.9$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.31 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ohio Bobcats | 54c | 363.49$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.16 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Ohio Bobcats | 60c | 334.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Ohio Bobcats | 54c | 333$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.93 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Ohio Bobcats | 57c | 290$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Ohio Bobcats | 58c | 275.86$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Ohio Bobcats | 57c | 241$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Ohio Bobcats | 57c | 176.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Ohio Bobcats | 57c | 176$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Ohio Bobcats | 57c | 163$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Ohio Bobcats | 58c | 153$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Ohio Bobcats | 57c | 147$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -9.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Ball State Cardinals | 75c | 99.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Ohio Bobcats | 57c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Ohio Bobcats | 57c | 76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Ohio Bobcats | 58c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Ball State Cardinals | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ball State Cardinals | 53c | 41.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Ball State Cardinals | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Ball State Cardinals | 42c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Ball State Cardinals | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Ball State Cardinals | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Ball State Cardinals | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Ball State Cardinals | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ohio Bobcats (-3.5)this page
- Ohio Bobcats vs. Ball State CardinalsBall State Cardinals won
- Ohio Bobcats vs. Ball State Cardinals: O/U 145.5Over won
- Ohio Bobcats vs. Ball State Cardinals: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Ohio Bobcats (-4.5)Ball State Cardinals won
- Spread: Ohio Bobcats (-5.5)Ball State Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.