NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6caccc70261ca240e1a1d9b07a51dd8456d646ec0f8e618378d061ee4ec78ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Packersof Packers, Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Packers | 48c | 34,553$16,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,967.56 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Lions | 52c | 28,140$14,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,632.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Lions | 55c | 10,322$5,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,677.1 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Lions | 55c | 10,070$5,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,495.77 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Packers | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Lions | 52c | 8,208$4,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,270.22 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Packers | 47c | 7,760$3,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,112.68 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lions | 53c | 6,053$3,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.38 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Packers | 48c | 3,232$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.63 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Packers | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Packers | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.21 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Packers | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Packers | 47c | 900$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Lions | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Packers | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Packers | 48c | 483$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Packers | 47c | 398.83$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.17 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Packers | 47c | 265.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Packers | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Packers | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.79 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Packers | 47c | 213$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Lions | 54c | 198.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Packers | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Lions | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Packers | 51c | 117.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Lions | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Packers | 45c | 105.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 112 | 37.5%42 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Packers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Packers | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Packers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Packers | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Packers | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked Lions | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…94d4backed Packers | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Lions | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Packers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Lions | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…c182backed Lions | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…b678backed Lions | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…7a58backed Packers | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)this page
- Lions vs. PackersPackers won
- Lions vs. Packers: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.