Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa76821f6b6fe62e427d9ddc7cceaa5c9266e3729d2eef2a406ef14d4e6ecfac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 0c | 12,110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 1c | 2,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…de5bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,900$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…14dcbacked No | 47c | 1,900$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 916.84$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 468$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 33c | 329.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.09 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 67c | 265.77$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.99 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 52c | 199.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 75c | 199.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 25c | 199.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.37 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 62c | 167$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 162.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 156.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 68c | 151.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 37c | 139.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes | 37c | 133.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…e907backed Yes | 64c | 133.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 129.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 38c | 121.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 76c | 120.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 75c | 119.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 53c | 116.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 114.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 112.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 40c | 107.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 102.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 33c | 101.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 42c | 99.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 56c | 93.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 62c | 93.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 88.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 77c | 82.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…2e65backed Yes | 32c | 80.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 50c | 72.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 62c | 68.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 35c | 67.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 45c | 67.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 34c | 64.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed09…9f58backed Yes | 41c | 61.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 57.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…fa48backed No | 36c | 55.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 53.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 34c | 49.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 48.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 61c | 48.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…1080backed No | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 47.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…307dbacked Yes | 43c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 80c | 45.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 35c | 45.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…d1bfbacked Yes | 46c | 45.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 44.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…3549backed Yes | 69c | 43.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293a…24f9backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 46c | 43.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes | 50c | 39.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 52c | 38.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 63c | 37.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 41c | 36.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 31c | 34.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 61c | 32.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…24fcbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…dc5dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Yes | 44c | 29.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 57c | 28.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 37c | 27.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 68c | 27.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 55c | 27.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 48c | 26.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 59c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…f461backed Yes | 57c | 24.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 55c | 24.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 24.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked No | 51c | 23.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 62c | 21.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No | 47c | 21.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…7656backed Yes | 53c | 20.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.