Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb32d45930d2d42ea51c8680c6e26821a97a33552a0e2241929c7d86b5925922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9930…4464backed Yes | 1c | 5,634$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 2c | 937$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 817.84$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.49 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 22c | 799.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 598.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 534.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 467.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 19c | 429.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 10c | 399.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 392.69$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…c45dbacked Yes | 8c | 371.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 8c | 368.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 349.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 70c | 334.51$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 310.26$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 306.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 17c | 286.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 260.92$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 46c | 254.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 251.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 8c | 250.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 18c | 233.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 23c | 217.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 16c | 214.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 6c | 204.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 201.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 33c | 199.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 199.79$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 44c | 189.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 14c | 181.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 57c | 176.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 64c | 174.51$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 161.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 42c | 158.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 70c | 154.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed No | 76c | 154.18$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 25c | 152.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 26c | 150.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…b5b2backed No | 71c | 149.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 10c | 121.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 34c | 120.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 38c | 119.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 47c | 116.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 26c | 116.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 27c | 111.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 31c | 109.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 11c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 16c | 103.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked Yes | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 62c | 99.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 98.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc418…ec2bbacked Yes | 17c | 97.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 38c | 94.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…d9d3backed No | 70c | 93.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 88.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…d1bfbacked Yes | 41c | 86.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 85.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 83.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 33c | 83.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 63c | 82.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 67c | 78.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 63c | 77.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 77.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 66c | 77.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 75.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 40c | 74.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 70c | 74.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 72.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 47c | 72.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 69.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…9ea8backed Yes | 36c | 69.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 58c | 68.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…175bbacked Yes | 27c | 66.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 65.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 30c | 65.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 41c | 65.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…f0fbbacked Yes | 20c | 65.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…ae19backed Yes | 36c | 63.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 65c | 61.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 57.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 43c | 56.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 66c | 55.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 31c | 55.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 53.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a955backed No | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 52.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 31c | 52.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed Yes | 39c | 51.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 34c | 51.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ee…691abacked Yes | 49c | 51.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 39c | 50.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.