Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Santander Men: Yaroslav Demin vs Carles Hernandez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa79ba3083bc9710611d35447a456488df01ee906ba523f028feb636557372b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carles Hernandezof Yaroslav Demin, Carles Hernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Carles Hernandez | 54c | 1,117$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.8 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yaroslav Demin | 77c | 890.36$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.57 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Carles Hernandez | 55c | 402.14$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.7 | 1,008 | 57.7%582 W · 426 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yaroslav Demin | 77c | 389$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.53 | 1,926 | 55.4%1,067 W · 859 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Carles Hernandez | 27c | 375.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.47 | 240 | 39.2%94 W · 146 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Carles Hernandez | 23c | 354$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.06 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked Yaroslav Demin | 47c | 318.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 251 | 44.2%111 W · 140 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Carles Hernandez | 46c | 259.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.05 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Carles Hernandez | 54c | 184.15$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Yaroslav Demin | 36c | 171.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 792 | 38.3%303 W · 489 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Yaroslav Demin | 42c | 168.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 654 | 37.5%245 W · 409 L | -33.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Yaroslav Demin | 13c | 156.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 329 | 37.1%122 W · 207 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yaroslav Demin | 78c | 156.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.85 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yaroslav Demin | 50c | 152.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Carles Hernandez | 72c | 140$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Carles Hernandez | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 375 | 58.1%218 W · 157 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Carles Hernandez | 47c | 109.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Carles Hernandez | 55c | 83.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 1,314 | 39%512 W · 802 L | -23.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…fa8bbacked Carles Hernandez | 22c | 54.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f1…28d4backed Carles Hernandez | 47c | 53.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yaroslav Demin | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Yaroslav Demin | 43c | 44.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 160 | 38.1%61 W · 99 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yaroslav Demin | 43c | 36.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yaroslav Demin | 77c | 36.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yaroslav Demin | 78c | 36.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 425 | 46.4%197 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Carles Hernandez | 52c | 33.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yaroslav Demin | 40c | 32.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 569 | 26%148 W · 421 L | -23.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yaroslav Demin | 78c | 25.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 897 | 41.7%374 W · 523 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yaroslav Demin | 78c | 23.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 359 | 56.8%204 W · 155 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.