MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7a72e753b5e74aaf2f59bd3c67c395c615ff61f732859c0d455734d595626af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 5,278$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.46 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Over | 7c | 2,350$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Over | 6c | 1,600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Over | 6c | 1,545$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +393.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 74c | 1,507$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.65 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Over | 6c | 1,250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Over | 9c | 1,150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 529.12$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.7 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked Over | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…998dbacked Over | 30c | 328.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 243.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 24c | 237$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 550 | 51.3%282 W · 268 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 29c | 231$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 228.74$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 218.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 39c | 217$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 1,003 | 24.7%248 W · 755 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 23c | 128.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 29c | 119.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,875 | 52.1%976 W · 899 L | +52.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 48c | 118.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 64c | 107.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 477 | 49.9%238 W · 239 L | +18.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 25c | 91.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 57c | 87.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 65c | 86.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 24c | 74.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 32c | 35.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -9.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 73c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.