MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8e4215845b9facc6ac2ed6c0405d717ee85699761fd030d6ef5924596d0a211
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Over | 47c | 749.99$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.49 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 362.77$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 249$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 194.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 146$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 135.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 102.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 98.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 55c | 71.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 51c | 67.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 38c | 61.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 49c | 60.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 39c | 60.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d4a3backed Under | 50c | 52.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 56c | 50.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9e…5347backed Under | 50c | 49.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 39c | 45.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 52c | 40.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 37c | 34.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 38c | 33.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 32.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 61c | 23.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.