Token Launches · resolved market
WLFI >$35B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7b62a62f354b71d64b2c212e90475ded47959482bb5e31409274709f1f9598e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95f1…b251backed Yes | 2c | 52,819$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bc…2907backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 15,893$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…2e9bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 2c | 952.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf373…32e4backed Yes | 2c | 624.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 50c | 511.81$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.14 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…0d22backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…4349backed No | 69c | 465.32$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5021…9906backed Yes | 31c | 463.73$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc012…baa0backed Yes | 3c | 420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…0c09backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…2691backed Yes | 35c | 281.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 42c | 277.19$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.24 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…a195backed Yes | 47c | 182.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…01bdbacked Yes | 59c | 170.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65aa…6db2backed No | 79c | 152$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 24c | 118.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…7100backed No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Yes | 12c | 85.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 62c | 83.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7733…0223backed Yes | 40c | 75.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked No | 74c | 53.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed No | 63c | 52.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e61…6feebacked Yes | 39c | 51.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…29ddbacked Yes | 35c | 49.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835c…be67backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 68c | 40.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…6c89backed No | 78c | 39.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 28c | 39.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…5d7bbacked Yes | 58c | 36.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753a…0e2cbacked No | 66c | 30.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…563dbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WLFI >$35B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?this page
- WLFI >$13B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- WLFI >$20B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.