Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7beffd3f1a9d0d7af19a847c7d75e3511d6ad060c817763806852d543c422bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, Vici Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Vici Gaming | 32c | 39,662$12,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,670.59 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Heroic | 67c | 22,275$14,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,376.21 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Heroic | 72c | 5,819$4,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.66 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Heroic | 65c | 4,028$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.88 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Heroic | 67c | 3,444$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic | 64c | 3,018$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.48 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…ef6bbacked Heroic | 76c | 2,871$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Vici Gaming | 35c | 2,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Heroic | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Vici Gaming | 34c | 999.94$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.98 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 62c | 777.07$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.93 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Heroic | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 62c | 742.14$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.64 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Vici Gaming | 34c | 552.06$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Heroic | 66c | 542.22$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.11 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 66c | 500$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Heroic | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…90dfbacked Heroic | 64c | 226.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 53c | 219.94$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Heroic | 64c | 215.63$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc0…0fa5backed Heroic | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Vici Gaming | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Vici Gaming | 31c | 195.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Vici Gaming | 23c | 179.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Vici Gaming | 27c | 169$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Vici Gaming | 37c | 157.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Heroic | 65c | 154$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Heroic | 50c | 124$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…405fbacked Vici Gaming | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Vici Gaming | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed Heroic | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…a423backed Heroic | 59c | 85.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2cf8backed Heroic | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…40aebacked Heroic | 78c | 77.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Vici Gaming | 34c | 74.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…749dbacked Heroic | 62c | 66.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Heroic | 63c | 60.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Heroic | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Heroic | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Heroic | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Vici Gaming | 31c | 37.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Heroic | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…e3babacked Heroic | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Heroic | 62c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…8257backed Heroic | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa088…9972backed Heroic | 65c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…67dbbacked Heroic | 66c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.