Tennis · resolved market
ITF Granby: Sara Saito vs Sakura Hosogi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7e9ca05bcefb3e689d61df7155e88f87cb7841e249596d48d5bf4f7bc29a15a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sara Saitoof Sara Saito, Sakura Hosogi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sakura Hosogi | 17c | 1,208$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.15 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sakura Hosogi | 46c | 597.85$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.88 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Sakura Hosogi | 25c | 272.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sara Saito | 60c | 198.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Sara Saito | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Sara Saito | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Sakura Hosogi | 38c | 120.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 357 | 47.9%171 W · 186 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Sakura Hosogi | 47c | 109.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Sara Saito | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Sara Saito | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Sara Saito | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sara Saito | 54c | 86.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Sakura Hosogi | 46c | 78.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Sakura Hosogi | 39c | 77.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Sara Saito | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Sakura Hosogi | 15c | 67.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Sara Saito | 75c | 63.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Sara Saito | 67c | 56.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Sara Saito | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Sakura Hosogi | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Sara Saito | 72c | 47.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Sakura Hosogi | 40c | 37.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Sara Saito | 62c | 36.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Sara Saito | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sakura Hosogi | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Sara Saito | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Sara Saito | 62c | 27.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Sara Saito | 79c | 21.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Sara Saito | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…be94backed Sara Saito | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.