Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Tomas Machac vs James Duckworth
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7fec680f9be4f5e22172d0c4a3fb866ad582759266f270afcfdc3c2307fd5a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Machacof Machac, Duckworth
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb726…4d2bbacked Duckworth | 22c | 4,508$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Machac | 74c | 2,472$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.16 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Machac | 66c | 968.25$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.34 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Machac | 69c | 752.81$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Machac | 75c | 619.09$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Duckworth | 50c | 609.6$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.31 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Machac | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Duckworth | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duckworth | 21c | 494.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Duckworth | 35c | 450.19$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Machac | 55c | 320.41$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.61 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Duckworth | 25c | 285.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Duckworth | 41c | 248.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Machac | 58c | 200.56$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Machac | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Duckworth | 29c | 186.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Machac | 63c | 175$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Machac | 59c | 170.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Machac | 64c | 124.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Machac | 72c | 108.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Duckworth | 44c | 107.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Duckworth | 42c | 102.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…3f46backed Machac | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 50 | 74%37 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Duckworth | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 44.2%87 W · 110 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Duckworth | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Duckworth | 41c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Machac | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Duckworth | 22c | 73.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Machac | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Duckworth | 21c | 65.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Duckworth | 49c | 62.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Duckworth | 45c | 50.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Machac | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Machac | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e2…9ff7backed Duckworth | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Machac | 68c | 36.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Machac | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Machac | 55c | 34.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Duckworth | 48c | 25.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Machac | 53c | 25.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Machac | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Machac | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International: Tomas Machac vs James Duckworththis page
- Machac vs. Duckworth: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Machac vs. Duckworth: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Machac vs DuckworthMachac won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.