Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7ffeddcf3470383212879ef4c11b3d2ec4ab0f587b09f4aaed07ae95d1e93c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Team Liquid, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Liquid | 46c | 880.61$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.72 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 662.18$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.22 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 624.15$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.96 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 615.48$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.74 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Team Liquid | 47c | 577.16$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.27 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4024…b865backed Team Liquid | 48c | 545.05$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Team Liquid | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Team Liquid | 50c | 443.43$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.14 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Liquid | 47c | 408.12$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 359.85$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 263.09$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 199.9$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.95 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ca23backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 183.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Liquid | 50c | 157.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 126.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Team Liquid | 48c | 123.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Team Liquid | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Team Liquid | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 83.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 50.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 47.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…db09backed Team Liquid | 79c | 47.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…5853backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Liquid | 47c | 38.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 36.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 33.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5149…3336backed Team Liquid | 50c | 27.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Team Liquid | 46c | 23.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.