Poker · resolved market
Nik Airball vs. Kristen Foxen: Higher winnings at Hustler Casino on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8054fcbc5e1c448f2c6d3370a1995490a9a08d11adcdfd6d5b0a177bfd36048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kristen Foxenof Nik Airball, Kristen Foxen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Kristen Foxen | 54c | 3,096$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…2053backed Nik Airball | 45c | 2,093$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8317…1723backed Nik Airball | 47c | 1,637$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Kristen Foxen | 56c | 732.32$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Kristen Foxen | 55c | 510.1$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Nik Airball | 42c | 481.29$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…f655backed Nik Airball | 44c | 459.65$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2add…9b43backed Kristen Foxen | 60c | 419.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…11c5backed Kristen Foxen | 43c | 400$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…64b8backed Kristen Foxen | 49c | 340.66$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Kristen Foxen | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Nik Airball | 51c | 234.81$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Kristen Foxen | 55c | 233.32$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f65…861ebacked Nik Airball | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked Nik Airball | 46c | 218.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9e…b513backed Kristen Foxen | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Kristen Foxen | 55c | 181.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Nik Airball | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Kristen Foxen | 47c | 156.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…c10dbacked Nik Airball | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Nik Airball | 46c | 131.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Nik Airball | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e00…9e93backed Kristen Foxen | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Kristen Foxen | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Nik Airball | 57c | 98.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…eeb1backed Nik Airball | 45c | 89.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc7…4880backed Kristen Foxen | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…f21bbacked Nik Airball | 45c | 71.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…c514backed Kristen Foxen | 60c | 67.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked Nik Airball | 40c | 59.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Nik Airball | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Nik Airball | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Nik Airball | 44c | 40.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…2a17backed Kristen Foxen | 56c | 19.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…2100backed Kristen Foxen | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.