TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,803 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes23c362.68$85 inLost-$85.123,42631.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L-38.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes25c330.4$84 inLost-$83.766424.2%161 W · 503 L-22.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes24c330.05$78 inLost-$77.7810,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes4c270$12 inLost-$11.66,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes32c185.14$60 inLost-$59.947726%20 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c170$114 inWon+$55.88,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes30c133$40 inLost-$40.0563733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No71c133$94 inWon+$38.9252567%352 W · 173 L+1.9wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes8c130$10 inLost-$10.356,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No78c119.14$93 inWon+$26.2135283.8%295 W · 57 L+39.0wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84e3…3dfdbacked No67c111.25$74 inWon+$36.7915678.2%122 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c105.92$81 inWon+$24.65,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes23c87.18$20 inLost-$19.911,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No78c57.69$45 inWon+$12.6910,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes32c46.87$15 inLost-$1578627.1%213 W · 573 L-1.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No71c46.04$33 inWon+$13.131,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c44.95$31 inWon+$13.539,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No67c42.07$28 inWon+$13.9689259.8%533 W · 359 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed Yes32c40.71$13 inLost-$12.921146.9%99 W · 112 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2467…2650backed No76c35.09$27 inWon+$8.279176.9%70 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes32c33.13$11 inLost-$10.627944.4%124 W · 155 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No70c32.94$23 inWon+$9.9455942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No67c30$20 inWon+$9.912064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd886…1746backed No66c28$19 inWon+$9.49055.6%50 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No70c26.08$18 inWon+$7.792,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked No78c25.64$20 inWon+$5.6417058.8%100 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No71c22.41$16 inWon+$6.57,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No71c20.61$15 inWon+$5.981,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No72c20$14 inWon+$5.63,20153.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L-101.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked No66c20$13 inWon+$6.817234.9%60 W · 112 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No70c20$14 inWon+$613351.9%69 W · 64 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No74c20$15 inWon+$5.22,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No77c19.48$15 inWon+$4.4846736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed No71c18$13 inWon+$5.225248.1%25 W · 27 L-8.6wins-0.17per pick65cpaid-27.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1ca4…6aa2backed No74c15$11 inWon+$3.914240.1%57 W · 85 L-11.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.