Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8300d7972edc6c4ad9aa32ec018aa1fef42bc0e6cf8ea9b49618437b1f6a6bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 60c | 316.91$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.15 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 73c | 293$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.67 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 45c | 200.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 192.08$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 156.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 147$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 139.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 109.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 85.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…abc5backed Yes | 40c | 82.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 79.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 78.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 75.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 46c | 72.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 42c | 68.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 40c | 62.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 60.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 33c | 59.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 39c | 52.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…3a2abacked No | 58c | 51.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 40c | 50.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 40c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 47.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 46.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 58c | 46.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…554ebacked Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 42.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 38.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 37c | 31.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 28.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 64c | 27.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 26.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 25.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 61c | 25.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 60c | 25.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 24.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 69c | 21.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 20.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 59c | 19.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 18.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.