Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa832ee5e5218a4417de76050353219787eff342e24adad950a4f887ac287178a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 50c | 1,106$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.08 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 39c | 267.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 38c | 221.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 59c | 212.24$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 212$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 208.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 8c | 203.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 47c | 200.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 66c | 189.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 38c | 177.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 65c | 172.69$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 152.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 40c | 143.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 39c | 142.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 30c | 138.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 130.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 57c | 128.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 34c | 123.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 115.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 33c | 112.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 39c | 103.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 64c | 100.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 69c | 98.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 37c | 95.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 83.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 61c | 82.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 39c | 76.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked Yes | 75c | 69.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 42c | 62.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 47c | 62.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 61.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 63c | 60.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 56c | 53.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 50.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x318e…9893backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 43c | 47.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c8…f61ebacked Yes | 63c | 46.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 37c | 45.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 37c | 40.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 39c | 38.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 59c | 37.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 45c | 37.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 45c | 36.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 44c | 36.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 67c | 31.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 30.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 54c | 28.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 45c | 27.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 27.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 26.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…4551backed Yes | 62c | 25.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 24.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.