Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8613718553f2e436893b6caf3774c30f59c8c05bb42aad673b0810e07416c6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f8…67c0backed No | 61c | 524.78$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 80c | 361.6$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 356.31$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 317.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 9c | 221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 25c | 193.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 70c | 176.16$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 105.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 90.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 80.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 79.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 71.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 33c | 71.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 74c | 68.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 35c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 22c | 55.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 34c | 54.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 36c | 48.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 64c | 48.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 25c | 48.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 40c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 79c | 44.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 33c | 42.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 37.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 35.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked No | 80c | 35.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 32.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 37c | 30.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 65c | 30.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 64c | 26.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 26.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 64c | 22.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 22.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 18.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 64c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 67c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 67c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 15.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 68c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…6586backed No | 72c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.