Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1d68ca9a51c8888ced5f65ac8de8f9d4d62ad162c64ebd68a2cc5ccf097b874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f8…67c0backed No | 68c | 447$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 356.31$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 33c | 267.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 77c | 207.23$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 190.64$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 63c | 157.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 64c | 155.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 154.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 40c | 131.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 130.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 29c | 119.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 10c | 114.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 100.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 94.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 53c | 91.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 29c | 82.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 41c | 71.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 71.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 43c | 69.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 66c | 62.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…7444backed Yes | 75c | 62.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…371abacked Yes | 48c | 62.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 61.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 50c | 60.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 50c | 59.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 57.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 56.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 38c | 55.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 54.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 53.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 24c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 40c | 50.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 49c | 49.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 70c | 42.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 37c | 39.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 39.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 37c | 35.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…0b28backed No | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 54c | 26.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 42c | 26.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 26.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 50c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 64c | 23.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 53c | 22.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…a9aebacked No | 70c | 20.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 53c | 20.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 79c | 20.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 17.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 75c | 16.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf09a…4286backed No | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.