Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89d61ebd9da4ffb968a29ac002c4daf29076f451a7f5df3ecc77341c7238ae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 50c | 899.18$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.24 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 50c | 360.23$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.11 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 38c | 307.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 175.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51e…1236backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 26c | 148.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 50c | 143.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 36c | 118.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 64c | 110$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 104.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 75.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 55c | 65.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 75c | 63.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 63.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 66c | 61.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 61.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…3204backed Yes | 65c | 46.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 45.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 45.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 44.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 48c | 43.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 34.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 34.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 43c | 33.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 43c | 29.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 23.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 63c | 23.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 23.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 50c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a5…f2e9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 57c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…3d6cbacked Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.