Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8319adc05c00305302ecac76402b4f93f0633b329adafe1609f3c95da8a3d620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 4c | 440.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 29c | 332.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.14 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 52c | 319.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 25c | 306.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.34 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 39c | 280.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…a60abacked No | 79c | 255.48$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 220.59$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 209.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 180.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 176.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 157.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 72c | 153.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 144.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 138.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 134.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 28c | 119.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 34c | 115.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 97.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 90.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 76c | 79.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 60.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 51.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…35e5backed Yes | 28c | 49.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 67c | 33.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 31.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 29.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 39c | 25.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 23.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 48c | 23.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 22.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 21.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…4e75backed Yes | 74c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…5482backed Yes | 64c | 17.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5002…9eefbacked Yes | 69c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.