Euroleague · resolved market
Real Madrid vs. Virtus Bologna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8c8d393b68885b537fd664f268ce6712f9ab0ff3972d9c9bf134022d7a7840a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madridof Real Madrid, Virtus Bologna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,220 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Virtus Bologna | 15c | 2,223$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.85 | 369 | 39.8%147 W · 222 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Virtus Bologna | 16c | 1,957$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus Bologna | 18c | 1,812$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.16 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Virtus Bologna | 31c | 1,296$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Virtus Bologna | 22c | 911.09$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.17 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virtus Bologna | 14c | 882.89$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Virtus Bologna | 23c | 780.06$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.43 | 265 | 44.5%118 W · 147 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Virtus Bologna | 14c | 649.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…505abacked Real Madrid | 78c | 582$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Real Madrid | 73c | 449.12$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Virtus Bologna | 25c | 434.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Virtus Bologna | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Virtus Bologna | 15c | 357$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Virtus Bologna | 14c | 323.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Virtus Bologna | 15c | 316.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Virtus Bologna | 39c | 241.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Virtus Bologna | 19c | 231.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 269 | 35.3%95 W · 174 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Virtus Bologna | 8c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 11cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Real Madrid | 79c | 209.38$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked Virtus Bologna | 15c | 194.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Virtus Bologna | 26c | 193.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Virtus Bologna | 12c | 172.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Virtus Bologna | 15c | 147.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Virtus Bologna | 22c | 106.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Virtus Bologna | 27c | 103.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…b205backed Real Madrid | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…22d6backed Virtus Bologna | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Real Madrid | 72c | 88.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Virtus Bologna | 21c | 83.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Virtus Bologna | 20c | 74.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 255 | 17.6%45 W · 210 L | -29.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Virtus Bologna | 15c | 66.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…5348backed Real Madrid | 76c | 65.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Virtus Bologna | 17c | 61.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 214 | 44.4%95 W · 119 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…7fbebacked Virtus Bologna | 25c | 59.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Real Madrid | 71c | 55.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 370 | 52.7%195 W · 175 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Real Madrid | 76c | 48.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…aec4backed Real Madrid | 73c | 45.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda86…6ff9backed Virtus Bologna | 38c | 38.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Real Madrid | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Real Madrid | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.