Chess · resolved market
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8d910427365f52810ec23db16e467f967b9eb28c818151189d4bbb97066f08b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed No | 66c | 8,554$5,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,913.82 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…fb0fbacked Yes | 33c | 3,777$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 66c | 3,771$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.29 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 35c | 2,883$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 68c | 2,695$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.96 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 33c | 2,579$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 35c | 2,416$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 32c | 951.08$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 34c | 907.99$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 33c | 729.61$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 13c | 632.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd703…b62ebacked No | 66c | 442.32$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 24c | 296.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ce…f646backed Yes | 8c | 282.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 65c | 258.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Yes | 35c | 202.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 33c | 191.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Yes | 35c | 150.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 14c | 146.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…7abcbacked Yes | 35c | 137.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6755…c7b3backed No | 67c | 119.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…fad9backed Yes | 35c | 118.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…d435backed No | 78c | 108.24$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…f7b2backed Yes | 30c | 96.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 65c | 88.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57e…fd72backed Yes | 36c | 84.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 82.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…5874backed Yes | 35c | 74.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked No | 66c | 73.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 70c | 66.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed No | 68c | 65.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 33c | 59.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 34c | 58.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…a438backed Yes | 36c | 53.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 53.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f60…db9ebacked Yes | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…6740backed No | 75c | 52.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed No | 67c | 52.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed Yes | 39c | 49.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe37…a506backed Yes | 38c | 38.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 64c | 23.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3732…e619backed Yes | 78c | 13.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?this page
- Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov vs. Anish Giri end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.