Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8ed23324d7b172d6fe196a3b9f85810bb8691fc4280061400d9a8a667e9fff2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 48c | 524.88$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.9 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 271.87$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 222.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 208.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 65c | 191.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 44c | 171.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 151.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 39c | 145.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes | 75c | 142.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.43 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 119.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 52c | 115.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 45c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 19c | 91.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb62…2f7ebacked Yes | 68c | 85.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 58c | 85.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 83.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 83.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 34c | 82.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 81.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 40c | 80.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ce1dbacked No | 26c | 71.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…f49dbacked Yes | 43c | 65.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47be…924cbacked No | 31c | 64.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 68c | 61.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 27c | 60.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 44c | 60.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c09…e652backed No | 66c | 58.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 39c | 57.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 56.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 25c | 55.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 59c | 50.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 25c | 49.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 48.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…0c06backed Yes | 38c | 48.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 58c | 47.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 26c | 46.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 63c | 45.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 31c | 44.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Yes | 47c | 43.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 67c | 42.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 77c | 41.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 40.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 40.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 68c | 39.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 77c | 36.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45d…4039backed Yes | 39c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 59c | 33.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 33.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 60c | 31.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…fe76backed No | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 73c | 30.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 53c | 30.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 60c | 28.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…cdbabacked Yes | 69c | 27.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 27.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 39c | 26.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 67c | 24.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 24.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 23.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 61c | 23.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 68c | 22.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 58c | 21.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 63c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 73c | 19.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 61c | 19.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…935bbacked No | 61c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…bdbfbacked No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 63c | 18.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…afbabacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.