NFL · resolved market
Will Tua Tagovailoa retire by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8edffbe99fad50ced700c80f0a05e03f8d9a591abbfdbff246f17a6063a6880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 13c | 3,181$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.95 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Yes | 5c | 1,454$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…5c8abacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 13c | 1,103$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.39 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,036$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 919.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Yes | 4c | 868.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed Yes | 29c | 801.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 5c | 753.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 12c | 643$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 6c | 627.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…63d5backed Yes | 3c | 607.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b0…1ad9backed Yes | 14c | 543.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…61fabacked Yes | 5c | 501.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 10c | 390$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 61c | 342.56$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 11c | 319.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…c6a8backed Yes | 15c | 297$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 17c | 150.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf77…b731backed Yes | 16c | 127.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes | 11c | 111.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…41afbacked Yes | 15c | 105.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 14c | 83.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.