College Football · resolved market
Spread: Indiana (-26.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8fa3a34b98aa63f2d256a1ea352196637ad0b36f6c8fb91c0a4754f3fb5c0d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indianaof Indiana, UCLA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef0c…2524backed UCLA | 50c | 31,200$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…2bccbacked Indiana | 50c | 28,101$14,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,050.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…2e85backed Indiana | 50c | 20,012$10,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,006 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…e11dbacked Indiana | 50c | 14,133$7,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,066.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Indiana | 51c | 12,780$6,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,301.69 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UCLA | 50c | 12,552$6,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,276 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3aa…5044backed UCLA | 50c | 12,457$6,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,228.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…e65ebacked UCLA | 50c | 11,812$5,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,906 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…78b1backed UCLA | 50c | 11,569$5,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,784.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…426abacked Indiana | 50c | 9,946$4,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,973 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6b14backed UCLA | 52c | 9,066$4,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,714.32 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…db36backed UCLA | 50c | 8,108$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,054 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…5146backed Indiana | 50c | 7,190$3,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,595 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…1550backed Indiana | 50c | 6,057$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,028.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f60…e360backed UCLA | 50c | 5,752$2,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,876 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a6…7538backed UCLA | 50c | 5,750$2,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,875 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…6b3cbacked Indiana | 50c | 5,750$2,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,875 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Indiana | 51c | 5,000$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Indiana | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…db38backed Indiana | 50c | 4,538$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,269 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Indiana | 50c | 3,951$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.54 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…14a7backed UCLA | 50c | 3,477$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992c…3ae9backed UCLA | 50c | 3,242$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3cdcbacked Indiana | 50c | 3,174$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…b7debacked UCLA | 50c | 2,490$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed UCLA | 50c | 2,083$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.65 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked UCLA | 53c | 2,000$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.82 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Indiana | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5057…531abacked UCLA | 50c | 1,206$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed UCLA | 49c | 1,135$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…09a7backed UCLA | 50c | 1,082$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Indiana | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed UCLA | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…1e40backed UCLA | 50c | 756$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked UCLA | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…9dd3backed UCLA | 50c | 201.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Indiana | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Indiana | 49c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed Indiana | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked UCLA | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed UCLA | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Indiana | 48c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Indiana | 49c | 62.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked UCLA | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Indiana | 49c | 35.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Indiana | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana (-26.5)this page
- O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana (-24.5)Indiana won
- Spread: Indiana (-25.5)Indiana won
- UCLA vs. IndianaIndiana won
- UCLA vs. Indiana: O/U 53.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.