Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa94d24a516ed778acab3ebd26a46e2de9ac5af11afb136e3d99c9e22dea3e082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Yes | 12c | 2,589$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.55 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 19c | 1,294$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.21 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 18c | 719.07$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 17c | 708.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.78 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 77c | 693.96$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.46 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 22c | 420.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade9…1990backed Yes | 12c | 417.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 415.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 408.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 404.53$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 12c | 392.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 376.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 21c | 263.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 80c | 245.6$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 216.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf872…2f4abacked Yes | 33c | 209.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 6c | 180.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 19c | 174.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 34c | 173.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 18c | 155.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 16c | 149.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed Yes | 21c | 141.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…06a2backed Yes | 25c | 138.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 134.63$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 78c | 132.31$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 14c | 123.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 80c | 114.29$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 25c | 104.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 28c | 101.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 25c | 96.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 19c | 93.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 14c | 91.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…b344backed Yes | 14c | 91.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…0dcdbacked Yes | 14c | 91.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 14c | 91.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0038…ad0dbacked Yes | 22c | 85.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 24c | 84.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 18c | 75.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 18c | 67.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 76c | 65.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 73c | 64.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 61.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 80c | 61.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 17c | 59.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 24c | 58.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 26c | 56.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 20c | 51.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 29c | 51.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 27c | 49.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 75c | 48.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…e50ebacked Yes | 26c | 45.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…c1a0backed No | 75c | 45.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed Yes | 24c | 42.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 73c | 38.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 79c | 37.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…18dbbacked No | 80c | 36.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf97b…d24cbacked Yes | 28c | 36.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 76c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 73c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153f…cb70backed No | 77c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.