La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa96ca4ad5c70f3b0ec8a6fc56d0e359b7dd39beafe970a26a04bb091ad5621bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $643,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $686,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $643,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 20c | 484,661$95,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,258.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 80c | 150,000$120,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,000 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 80c | 40,005$32,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,001.2 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 19c | 20,215$3,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,840.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 80c | 20,000$16,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Yes | 80c | 18,178$14,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,635.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 19c | 15,782$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.5 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 18c | 11,814$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.52 | 88 | 28.4%25 W · 63 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 80c | 9,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 80c | 7,332$5,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.4 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 17c | 6,614$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.32 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 18c | 5,997$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.55 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Yes | 80c | 2,600$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Yes | 80c | 2,600$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Yes | 80c | 1,273$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.6 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 7c | 1,078$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b5…e04fbacked No | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 18c | 899.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked No | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 17c | 739.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.23 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Yes | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 19c | 599.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 19c | 576.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…31cabacked No | 19c | 526.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 14c | 438.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +27%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…a356backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 19c | 357.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 80c | 294$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 228.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…b925backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed No | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 18c | 191.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e89…edfcbacked Yes | 79c | 141.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 19c | 102.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 20c | 99.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 127 | 22.8%29 W · 98 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 19c | 94.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…72d3backed Yes | 79c | 63.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc909…c315backed Yes | 79c | 63.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8020…7af1backed Yes | 80c | 62.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39f…d745backed Yes | 80c | 62.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed No | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…6744backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…e648backed Yes | 79c | 35.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2050…5d38backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…81b1backed Yes | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Yes | 79c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cb…a4ddbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd1…ae79backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-20?No won
- Will Real Madrid vs. Espanyol end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.