MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa97aeca8520135e616995db7d4ad26f436c389de52910333474b50ec80e8eff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 1,476$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.45 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 952.78$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 49c | 700.09$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 403.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.23 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 207.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 205.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Minnesota Twins | 10c | 201.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 182.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Houston Astros | 62c | 125$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 102.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…8732backed Minnesota Twins | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…7c8bbacked Minnesota Twins | 18c | 86.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 80.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 69.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…8d9cbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 56.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 56.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros | 55c | 39.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba9…1303backed Houston Astros | 39c | 36.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Houston Astros | 61c | 35.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 34.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0653backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 33.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Houston Astros | 65c | 26.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 23.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 61c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Houston Astros | 63c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.