MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb1a9b8ca423afaa3cf78f0b4334e7dd685c8c464cb8750cfcb6650739ce0fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 53c | 70,107$37,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,156.71 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 47c | 51,564$24,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,328.92 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 8,572$4,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,633.46 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 7,604$3,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,276.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 5,921$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,713.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 51c | 4,949$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.36 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 4,507$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,388.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 4,014$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 1,668$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.48 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.48 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 52c | 1,058$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.16 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 48c | 946.38$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.47 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 47c | 776$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.28 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 596$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 50c | 476.16$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.24 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 49c | 448.71$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.84 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 389.21$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.62 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Under | 50c | 373.97$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 51c | 352.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Over | 48c | 230.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 227.82$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 48c | 227.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.24 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 49c | 226.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 5c | 223.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 51c | 159$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…9ef3backed Over | 51c | 156.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 53c | 123.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 28c | 112.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 50c | 103.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2411…d620backed Over | 53c | 93.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Under | 51c | 77.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 73.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 47c | 63.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Under | 25c | 57.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 53c | 51.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 53c | 41.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Under | 42c | 40.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 39.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 57c | 39.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…6c53backed Under | 53c | 37.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 58c | 36.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Over | 48c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 72c | 31.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 54c | 24.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 64c | 23.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…deaebacked Under | 52c | 20.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 49c | 20.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…fd82backed Under | 54c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.