UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse (Featherweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa98f863dd8f4963f9865f346e51839f0b9764f5763e346d09073a180752fc59b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marcio Barbosaof Marcio Barbosa, Ryan Kuse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Ryan Kuse | 12c | 39,548$4,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,745.76 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ryan Kuse | 11c | 20,408$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.88 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…e8f9backed Ryan Kuse | 13c | 8,481$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Ryan Kuse | 13c | 8,448$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.21 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -7.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ryan Kuse | 11c | 7,922$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.46 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…d4d5backed Ryan Kuse | 13c | 4,231$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Ryan Kuse | 9c | 3,162$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.19 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Ryan Kuse | 7c | 3,005$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.82 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Ryan Kuse | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…442bbacked Ryan Kuse | 11c | 2,373$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.03 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Ryan Kuse | 12c | 1,514$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.62 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Ryan Kuse | 9c | 1,300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Ryan Kuse | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ryan Kuse | 6c | 939.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Ryan Kuse | 8c | 800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ryan Kuse | 7c | 673.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…28c5backed Ryan Kuse | 13c | 630.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…7c29backed Ryan Kuse | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Ryan Kuse | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…68e2backed Ryan Kuse | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc306…3bb9backed Ryan Kuse | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…7aa2backed Ryan Kuse | 10c | 351.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Ryan Kuse | 7c | 336.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Ryan Kuse | 12c | 308.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Ryan Kuse | 14c | 205.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Ryan Kuse | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…b07abacked Ryan Kuse | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…0c83backed Ryan Kuse | 14c | 151.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Ryan Kuse | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Ryan Kuse | 13c | 138$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Ryan Kuse | 12c | 135.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…237ebacked Ryan Kuse | 16c | 126.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Ryan Kuse | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Ryan Kuse | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 239 | 61.5%147 W · 92 L | +16.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…0944backed Ryan Kuse | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x543d…3302backed Ryan Kuse | 14c | 92.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse (Featherweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Marcio Barbosa win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Ryan Kuse win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.