MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9a62bee745871615835ee652c1a3bf6edc99ddc49364891b731f0f270326f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,640 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 48c | 5,633$2,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,929.29 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed Under | 49c | 2,267$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.35 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed Over | 51c | 1,033$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 51c | 1,005$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.55 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Over | 51c | 775.89$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.71 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 391.92$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 263.84$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 249.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.44 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…998dbacked Under | 24c | 206.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 134.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 51c | 90.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 70.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 48c | 62.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…2059backed Under | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 47c | 41.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 31c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Under | 49c | 33.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…e049backed Under | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 50c | 28.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -9.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 51c | 22.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.