MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddea9cc39d1faadf7a5bf997d594582d57af28c56f29480ba1834c8756654c1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c0a…a9bebacked New York Yankees | 46c | 23,000$10,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,419.98 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 7,574$4,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,084.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 4,383$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.84 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 4,338$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.6 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked New York Yankees | 47c | 3,064$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.83 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 2,119$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.12 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 2,000$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.6 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 1,657$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.87 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 1,540$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 1,497$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.33 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 1,497$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.33 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 1,440$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 1,275$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.62 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 1,275$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 1,030$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 955$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.25 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 883.25$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.69 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 52c | 880.92$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 783.8$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 748.19$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.76 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed New York Yankees | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 619.93$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed New York Yankees | 46c | 423.91$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.91 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 359.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.39 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 330.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 46c | 259.31$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…5a65backed New York Yankees | 46c | 239.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed New York Yankees | 45c | 219.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked New York Yankees | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked New York Yankees | 48c | 206.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed New York Yankees | 44c | 196.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked New York Yankees | 44c | 195.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees | 45c | 195$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 170$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 103.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…27f1backed New York Yankees | 46c | 88.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Baltimore Orioles | 19c | 76.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 67.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed New York Yankees | 74c | 54.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 45.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 44.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6bc6backed New York Yankees | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Yankees | 48c | 41.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed New York Yankees | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked New York Yankees | 48c | 40.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 40.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 31.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…3f6dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 406 | 50.2%204 W · 202 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…2241backed New York Yankees | 52c | 30.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…3da2backed New York Yankees | 52c | 30.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed New York Yankees | 52c | 30.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed New York Yankees | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Yankees | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked New York Yankees | 47c | 22.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked New York Yankees | 51c | 20.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.