MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x155b9ed47132b3dd787847d870a1eb7219ba4d4a7d994885a912b9e75f9b3f9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 3,508$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.3 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 2,884$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.68 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 2,315$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.84 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 57c | 1,994$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.33 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 1,326$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.32 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 50c | 1,180$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 44c | 708$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.44 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 581$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.53 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 55c | 529.15$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.61 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 309.12$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 42c | 236$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 58c | 225$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 48c | 205.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 157.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 45c | 155.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 56c | 141.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 48c | 138.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 63c | 134.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 119.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 44c | 113.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked Over | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 55c | 65.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 48c | 61.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 42c | 47.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 54c | 44.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 48c | 42.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 54c | 39.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 48c | 36.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Under | 50c | 28.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 68c | 27.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 47c | 24.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Under | 59c | 18.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…185fbacked Under | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.