Champions League · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9b428283d57dde8aa5c118e29007d5796a0fc53a4ab2d0d34a719194dc2f8c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 9,549$7,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.87 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 18c | 9,518$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.29 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 2,223$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.69 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 79c | 1,403$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.58 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 70c | 1,080$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.57 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 21c | 1,074$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.57 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 31c | 999.13$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.21 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 73c | 821.92$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.92 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 30c | 600.43$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.13 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Over | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 78c | 239.66$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 15c | 132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Over | 16c | 112.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 18c | 111.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…48c0backed Over | 23c | 109.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 14c | 77.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…2341backed Over | 31c | 63.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…025cbacked Under | 68c | 60.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Over | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 22c | 50.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Over | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…08d0backed Under | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 79c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Atalanta BC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.