Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9f3c441b697f2d9a95ac645f36da249a35e9c5a137d51e58a3907b04d1893c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 996.09$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.28 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 748.74$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 307.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 303.9$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 49c | 296.85$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 58c | 292.7$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.62 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 272.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 59c | 252.44$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.71 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 210$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 201.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 201$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 180.92$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 171.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 167.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 54c | 162.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 156.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 50c | 149.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 40c | 142.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 65c | 142.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 69c | 123.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 113.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 45c | 108$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 47c | 87.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 39c | 82.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 77.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 49c | 76.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 76.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 55.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 43.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 49c | 43.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 53c | 40.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06e…02d9backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked No | 32c | 37.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 50c | 35.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 42c | 34.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 58c | 34.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…3823backed Yes | 37c | 34.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 64c | 32.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 54c | 32.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 31.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 60c | 30.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 63c | 30.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 42c | 29.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 41c | 29.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 27.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 22.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fd…fd0cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 64c | 19.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.