MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa01ac8fd3416db660fe133c2d1a48fba24669591c4bbf79c26c98d0f2d16f4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 35c | 8,844$3,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,052.09 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 4,846$3,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.72 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 2,293$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 1,739$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 44c | 1,544$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.64 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 1,382$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 65c | 1,066$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.13 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 565.1$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 67c | 533.83$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 56c | 509.99$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.59 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 44c | 425.09$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.05 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 56c | 329.13$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.31 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Under | 57c | 325.67$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.63 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 55c | 300$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 56c | 280$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 216.91$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Under | 56c | 215.84$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 65c | 198$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 146.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 135$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 26c | 75.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 70.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 33c | 40.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 66c | 28.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 42c | 26.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…2191backed Under | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 56c | 24.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 65c | 18.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.