Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa0fb7cc6491db800fa028b2817d44afc47a72acba02c9134c9592e8f1fb5f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,042 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5a5…9886backed No | 5c | 999.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 42c | 398.87$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.49 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 333.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 6c | 332.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 15c | 249.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 243.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 174.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 35c | 149.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 138.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 44c | 130.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 128.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 58c | 127.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 35c | 111.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…1151backed No | 55c | 111.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 109$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 106.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 103$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 102.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 54c | 73.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 41c | 71.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 70.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 65.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 18c | 56.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 38c | 54.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…dd31backed Yes | 55c | 52.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…560dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…bdb8backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab8…0eebbacked No | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 42c | 45.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…b1fcbacked Yes | 26c | 39.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 37.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…4ddfbacked Yes | 73c | 37.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 64c | 35.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 35.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 65c | 35.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 39c | 33.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 28.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…6865backed Yes | 67c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ea…234dbacked Yes | 78c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or higher on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.