Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Rei Sakamoto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa10da136d1747da0dca8a4a6d44751643ac300d45792887eff3fe2d0ba5d9c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhangof Zhang, Sakamoto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5ed…d25fbacked Sakamoto | 35c | 4,287$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sakamoto | 0c | 3,669$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Zhang | 67c | 2,806$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.32 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…71babacked Sakamoto | 11c | 1,375$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 285 | 52.3%149 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Zhang | 71c | 1,350$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.35 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sakamoto | 14c | 697.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 4,411 | 51.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L | +137.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Zhang | 77c | 391.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sakamoto | 16c | 285.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…6405backed Zhang | 72c | 276.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…2525backed Sakamoto | 52c | 239.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Zhang | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Sakamoto | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Zhang | 80c | 125.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Zhang | 80c | 125.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…2ed2backed Zhang | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sakamoto | 49c | 108.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Sakamoto | 43c | 103.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,332 | 46.6%1,087 W · 1,245 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Sakamoto | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Sakamoto | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Sakamoto | 16c | 97.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 6,740 | 48.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L | +58.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48c…ab11backed Sakamoto | 24c | 82.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…9541backed Zhang | 49c | 81.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Zhang | 45c | 74.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 273 | 44.7%122 W · 151 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6a…c76abacked Sakamoto | 55c | 73.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…275ebacked Sakamoto | 51c | 72.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Sakamoto | 30c | 65.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Zhang | 51c | 49.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aee…7ed5backed Zhang | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…b2cebacked Sakamoto | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Zhang | 71c | 36.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 4,584 | 48.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L | +35.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…961cbacked Zhang | 48c | 36.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Zhang | 44c | 31.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 949 | 40.1%381 W · 568 L | +30.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Zhang | 65c | 27.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Sakamoto | 52c | 27.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Zhang | 67c | 26.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.