UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa1e3d504e680e8a60d3a8d0a890b2d304ab9ca42f3eee655a2ede53f466d169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Under | 48c | 4,960$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.99 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 52c | 4,900$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 2,357$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.29 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Under | 48c | 1,964$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 47c | 1,248$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.5 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 45c | 1,000$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.14 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 55c | 858.13$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.16 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…08bbbacked Over | 53c | 672$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Under | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…268ebacked Over | 56c | 357$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Over | 53c | 349.06$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 45c | 322.52$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.13 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Under | 48c | 252.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Over | 53c | 229$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Over | 56c | 181.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Over | 54c | 102.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd1…d2f6backed Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 44c | 67.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…c91bbacked Over | 53c | 61.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…0a8bbacked Over | 56c | 54.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 47.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Over | 53c | 36.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed Over | 53c | 36.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked Over | 53c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…4421backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card)Tommy McMillen won
- Will Alberto Montes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Tommy McMillen win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.