UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x449ab011b3f7cff7e6766ea00a883fea4edd610467b2e4274465f32ef5c02c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 21c | 14,345$3,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,052.43 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed No | 79c | 13,137$10,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.64 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed No | 77c | 10,776$8,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487.72 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Yes | 23c | 5,319$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.32 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,101$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.52 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 70c | 1,657$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.74 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 69c | 1,603$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.21 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Yes | 25c | 1,600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 63c | 1,381$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.44 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Yes | 31c | 1,376$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.3 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Yes | 32c | 887.73$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.78 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 30c | 701$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Yes | 23c | 643.48$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 23c | 616.77$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Yes | 30c | 601$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.32 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 22c | 488.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 58c | 444.29$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.95 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9f45backed Yes | 51c | 392.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed No | 77c | 388.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…e4c2backed No | 58c | 310.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.45 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked No | 62c | 227.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed No | 63c | 222$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Yes | 28c | 160.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed No | 71c | 98.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 22c | 91.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Yes | 53c | 83.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 76c | 82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 46c | 77.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes | 24c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes | 27c | 73.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 24c | 69.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked No | 48c | 64.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 73c | 51.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Yes | 32c | 43.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 37c | 37.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 32c | 35.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 77c | 26.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…8e66backed No | 78c | 12.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card)Tommy McMillen won
- Will Alberto Montes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Tommy McMillen win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.